La deuda de Japón

Al margen del terrible drama humano que se padece en estos momentos, y de los graves riesgos derivados de las explosiones y escapes de las centrales nucleares, hay un efecto económico que será muy relevante a corto plazo: Se trata del fuerte incremento de la deuda pública al que se verá abocado el Gobierno japonés.

Elaboración: The Economist, Fuente: FMI

Y esta cuestión no es insignificamente: Japón tiene la deuda pública más abultada de los países desarrollados, concretamente su deuda actual es algo superior al 200% de su PIB. Los datos del gráfico anterior no están actualizados aún, pero son muy aproximados con los resultados reales. Para nuestro interés son datos suficientemente válidos.

Además hay que recordar que es la tercera economía mundial. Y este dato es muy importante para el resto de países, especialmente los que estamos en crisis o empezamos a vislumbrar cierta mejora en algunos parámetros. Un colapso de la economía japonesa sí influye en nuestra capacidad de recuperación.

Las primeras aproximaciones de AIR Worldwide y Eqecat, dos compañías especializadas en cuantificaciones de catástrofes para aseguradoras, hablan de unos daños superiores a 100.000 millones de dólares. A eso hay que sumar las pérdidas de las empresas que no puede producir bien por falta de suministros, de electricidad o por el estado de las comunicaciones.

El gobierno japonés deberá inyectar al menos esa cantidad para reponer los daños. Eso generará un cierto repunte en su economía, pero también incrementará su ya abultada deuda.

Ya veremos cómo van evolucionando los acontecimientos, pero me temo que las probabilidades de que Japón necesite la ayuda financiera internacional son elevadas.

Manuel Caraballo Callero

Economista de Izadi AG

Twitter @izadiag

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